The Cost of Stability

The Yemen 'Day of Rage' has been quite in my corner of the country and though the protests in Sana'a were large, they were peaceful. That is good.

According to the BBC, over 20,000 people gathered at an anti-government rally in Sana'a. That is the largest crowd ever to gather in opposition to the current president.

The NY Times also reports that a sizable pro-government rally was organized by the president and his party. The pro-government rally called for political change but not for the president's removal, believing only he could ensure the country's stability.

The president, in addition to announcing Wednesday that he nor his son will run for office in 2013, has promised to raise civil servant and military wages, impose price controls on critical goods, establish a fund to employ university graduates, extend social security and reduce income taxes. He also promised to reform the election process in advance of April's parliamentary elections.

Let's focus on his economic and financial promises. While in the short run these promises may defuse the economic motivations for political action against the president, in the long run, they exacerbate Yemen's financial problem. The government of Yemen relies on oil for a majority of its revenue but due to low global oil prices, a corrupt system that syphons money off at several points (I suspect. I can not prove that) and dwindling reserves, the Yemeni government is barreling (like that pun?) toward the day when it can no longer sustain the welfare and clientelism system that maintains state stability. When the government, in particular the president, can no long offer handouts and favors, it will lose its control over the tribal and local leaders it has absorbed into the system and thus its ability to provide stability. Loyalty you buy is only good when you can pay for it.

Adding further financial strain to the system to achieve an ephemeral political victory does not help Yemen.