Yemen Forecast

It's warming up. I mean, literally, the weather starting to be hot again. I was really hoping the Yemeni winter would stay a couple more months but the spring/summer/fall monster of heat and humidity is moving back in. Alas.

Being more pensive and metaphorical for a moment, here are where things stand in Yemen's political arena and thoughts on what could be coming. The protests last Thursday did not make the big waves Western observers were expecting. As you might have read, Yemen opposition parties called for protests last Thursday against the government. Protests occurred in the big cities but were moderate in size, peaceful, and dispersed before lunch. In Sana'a, a sizable crowd gathered for a pro-government rally in Sana'a's Liberation Square calling for reform but not for regime change. Rumor has it that those protesters received 2000 YR for their morning of shouting and cheering. That's good money for a half day of work in Yemen.

The opposition has vowed to protest every Thursday until those demands are met. it is not clear whether these protests will be more intense or longer than those last Thursday. Local threat analysts say the likelihood of Yemen being the next Egypt are low right now but note that if Yemen was to experience wide spread protests, they would likely be violent given the country is awash in firearms.

Gregory Johnson, a professor at Princeton University, keeps a insightful blog on Yemen called Waq al-Waq. I encourage you to read his posts. You will find a link to his blog on the right of this blog. I enjoy sharing my attempts at political analysis with you but encourage you to read his posts for a more informed perspective.

He writes in his post recent post that he thinks Yemen will be in trouble if two things happen: 1. Mubarak falls in Egypt and 2. Yemenis take to the street outside the control of political parties in popular protests. Some analysts after last Thursdays largely quiet day of rage concluded Yemen will not follow the path of Tunisia and Egypt. Johnson instead, noting that Yemen has historically been the caboose of the Arab political fashion train, urges patience in forecasting Yemen's future.

As for the weather, it's getting warmer.