The man is saying "The next Arab summit conference will be for introductions"
Trust games and slumber parties!
Monday, March 7, 2011
Do we have a budget for name tags?
The man is saying "The next Arab summit conference will be for introductions"
Trust games and slumber parties!
Saturday, March 5, 2011
Safeties First
Clashes in north Yemen left several dead (see article here) The incident occurred in Sa'ada, the site of recurring conflict between Houthi rebels and government forces. To make a very long story short, the Houthi rebellion began as a police action to arrest Husein al-Houthi but has continued to rage, alternating between low-level conflict to full pitched battles, since 2004. The root cause of the conflict has largely been lost as grievances have built on both sides after years of warfare and destruction.
The Houthi leadership recently announced their support for the protests calling for the president to resign. This is notable as it signals an abandonment (at least temporarily) of regional conflict in favor of a united front against the regime. I can't remember if the Southern movement has made a similar declaration but it as well would mean trouble for the president.
The truth of what happened Friday in Sa'ada is unknown. The Houthis claim that soldiers opened fire on a peaceful procession. The soldiers claim that armed men stormed an army base. Either way, shootings or rumors of shootings, particularly ones in which peaceful protesters are victims of aggressive government agents, will likely galvanize more people to the opposition as it changes the dynamic, raises emotions and boils tempers.
On a related note, I am yet to see a Yemeni soldier or police officer in proper riot gear. Perhaps if they had an alternative to firing their gun they might not shoot so much.
The Houthi leadership recently announced their support for the protests calling for the president to resign. This is notable as it signals an abandonment (at least temporarily) of regional conflict in favor of a united front against the regime. I can't remember if the Southern movement has made a similar declaration but it as well would mean trouble for the president.
The truth of what happened Friday in Sa'ada is unknown. The Houthis claim that soldiers opened fire on a peaceful procession. The soldiers claim that armed men stormed an army base. Either way, shootings or rumors of shootings, particularly ones in which peaceful protesters are victims of aggressive government agents, will likely galvanize more people to the opposition as it changes the dynamic, raises emotions and boils tempers.
On a related note, I am yet to see a Yemeni soldier or police officer in proper riot gear. Perhaps if they had an alternative to firing their gun they might not shoot so much.
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
The people want....?
Um. Err. Well.
The people are still making up their minds in Yemen. There are minority groups, the group gathered at Sana'a University and groups in Taiz that have demonstrated commitment to the protests but the public at large is still content to observe and not participate. The street protests in Egypt were popular in a way the protests in Yemen are not, at least not yet.
Political parties in Yemen are still finding their place in the uprising. Yemeni political parties seem to be the only entities with the organizational capacity to stage large protests but they suffer from a lack of support. They initially tried to lead the charge and are now searching to time and ride the waves of popular anger. Today, the latest Day of Rage in Yemen, was another such attempt to time political party involvement with a rise in popular protest momentum. From what I can tell, it was not successful.
A development to watch is the recent declarations by tribal leaders throwing their support behind the opposition movement. One such leader, from the president's own tribe, has called for the tribe to join the protests this coming Friday in Sana'a. Tribal allegiances play an critical balancing role in Yemeni politics. Last week the president paid visits to tribal leaders near the capital, passing out money and new cars in an effort to secure their support. Both the ruling party and the opposition recognize the importance of the tribes and the unrest taking on a strong tribal dynamic could raise concerns of civil war.
The NY times reported today that a Al-Qaeda leader in Yemen called for the protests to bring about an Islamic state in Yemen. That has been part of AQAP's narrative in Yemen but does not really have traction with the ordinary Yemeni. AQAP even recognizes that and already tries to adapt its messages to more align with Yemeni domestic grievances. I doubt that AQAP's call for an Islamic state will draw out more protesters. People smarter than me believe that AQAP thrives in Yemen because of a weak state presence in rural areas and potential state support for AQAP as it keeps international aid coming into the country. A regime change would likely mean a less favorable environment for AQAP activities. When AQAP's narrative can no longer use domestic greivances, I believe tolerance for their activities will fade.
The police response to protests in the southern city of Aden has been disproportionately violent compared to police action in other regions. The president's message to protect peaceful protesters did not seem to make to the forces he sent to Aden. The extreme use of violent force in the former capital of South Yemen by police and army forces enhances the north-south regional dynamic and has the potential to fuel larger, more angry protests if there are more deaths.
Finally, today the Yemeni president claimed that the current unrest in the Arab world is a plot hatched by Israel and the US to undermine Arab regimes. I don't know how people are reacting to that but it seems to me as a pretty transparent attempt to redirection attention off his regime.
The people are still making up their minds in Yemen. There are minority groups, the group gathered at Sana'a University and groups in Taiz that have demonstrated commitment to the protests but the public at large is still content to observe and not participate. The street protests in Egypt were popular in a way the protests in Yemen are not, at least not yet.
Political parties in Yemen are still finding their place in the uprising. Yemeni political parties seem to be the only entities with the organizational capacity to stage large protests but they suffer from a lack of support. They initially tried to lead the charge and are now searching to time and ride the waves of popular anger. Today, the latest Day of Rage in Yemen, was another such attempt to time political party involvement with a rise in popular protest momentum. From what I can tell, it was not successful.
A development to watch is the recent declarations by tribal leaders throwing their support behind the opposition movement. One such leader, from the president's own tribe, has called for the tribe to join the protests this coming Friday in Sana'a. Tribal allegiances play an critical balancing role in Yemeni politics. Last week the president paid visits to tribal leaders near the capital, passing out money and new cars in an effort to secure their support. Both the ruling party and the opposition recognize the importance of the tribes and the unrest taking on a strong tribal dynamic could raise concerns of civil war.
The NY times reported today that a Al-Qaeda leader in Yemen called for the protests to bring about an Islamic state in Yemen. That has been part of AQAP's narrative in Yemen but does not really have traction with the ordinary Yemeni. AQAP even recognizes that and already tries to adapt its messages to more align with Yemeni domestic grievances. I doubt that AQAP's call for an Islamic state will draw out more protesters. People smarter than me believe that AQAP thrives in Yemen because of a weak state presence in rural areas and potential state support for AQAP as it keeps international aid coming into the country. A regime change would likely mean a less favorable environment for AQAP activities. When AQAP's narrative can no longer use domestic greivances, I believe tolerance for their activities will fade.
The police response to protests in the southern city of Aden has been disproportionately violent compared to police action in other regions. The president's message to protect peaceful protesters did not seem to make to the forces he sent to Aden. The extreme use of violent force in the former capital of South Yemen by police and army forces enhances the north-south regional dynamic and has the potential to fuel larger, more angry protests if there are more deaths.
Finally, today the Yemeni president claimed that the current unrest in the Arab world is a plot hatched by Israel and the US to undermine Arab regimes. I don't know how people are reacting to that but it seems to me as a pretty transparent attempt to redirection attention off his regime.
Tuesday, February 8, 2011
Yemen Forecast
It's warming up. I mean, literally, the weather starting to be hot again. I was really hoping the Yemeni winter would stay a couple more months but the spring/summer/fall monster of heat and humidity is moving back in. Alas.
Being more pensive and metaphorical for a moment, here are where things stand in Yemen's political arena and thoughts on what could be coming. The protests last Thursday did not make the big waves Western observers were expecting. As you might have read, Yemen opposition parties called for protests last Thursday against the government. Protests occurred in the big cities but were moderate in size, peaceful, and dispersed before lunch. In Sana'a, a sizable crowd gathered for a pro-government rally in Sana'a's Liberation Square calling for reform but not for regime change. Rumor has it that those protesters received 2000 YR for their morning of shouting and cheering. That's good money for a half day of work in Yemen.
The opposition has vowed to protest every Thursday until those demands are met. it is not clear whether these protests will be more intense or longer than those last Thursday. Local threat analysts say the likelihood of Yemen being the next Egypt are low right now but note that if Yemen was to experience wide spread protests, they would likely be violent given the country is awash in firearms.
Gregory Johnson, a professor at Princeton University, keeps a insightful blog on Yemen called Waq al-Waq. I encourage you to read his posts. You will find a link to his blog on the right of this blog. I enjoy sharing my attempts at political analysis with you but encourage you to read his posts for a more informed perspective.
He writes in his post recent post that he thinks Yemen will be in trouble if two things happen: 1. Mubarak falls in Egypt and 2. Yemenis take to the street outside the control of political parties in popular protests. Some analysts after last Thursdays largely quiet day of rage concluded Yemen will not follow the path of Tunisia and Egypt. Johnson instead, noting that Yemen has historically been the caboose of the Arab political fashion train, urges patience in forecasting Yemen's future.
As for the weather, it's getting warmer.
Being more pensive and metaphorical for a moment, here are where things stand in Yemen's political arena and thoughts on what could be coming. The protests last Thursday did not make the big waves Western observers were expecting. As you might have read, Yemen opposition parties called for protests last Thursday against the government. Protests occurred in the big cities but were moderate in size, peaceful, and dispersed before lunch. In Sana'a, a sizable crowd gathered for a pro-government rally in Sana'a's Liberation Square calling for reform but not for regime change. Rumor has it that those protesters received 2000 YR for their morning of shouting and cheering. That's good money for a half day of work in Yemen.
The opposition has vowed to protest every Thursday until those demands are met. it is not clear whether these protests will be more intense or longer than those last Thursday. Local threat analysts say the likelihood of Yemen being the next Egypt are low right now but note that if Yemen was to experience wide spread protests, they would likely be violent given the country is awash in firearms.
Gregory Johnson, a professor at Princeton University, keeps a insightful blog on Yemen called Waq al-Waq. I encourage you to read his posts. You will find a link to his blog on the right of this blog. I enjoy sharing my attempts at political analysis with you but encourage you to read his posts for a more informed perspective.
He writes in his post recent post that he thinks Yemen will be in trouble if two things happen: 1. Mubarak falls in Egypt and 2. Yemenis take to the street outside the control of political parties in popular protests. Some analysts after last Thursdays largely quiet day of rage concluded Yemen will not follow the path of Tunisia and Egypt. Johnson instead, noting that Yemen has historically been the caboose of the Arab political fashion train, urges patience in forecasting Yemen's future.
As for the weather, it's getting warmer.
Saturday, February 5, 2011
Join the Flour Revolution. It's the yeast you can do
A man taking part in anti-government protests in Sana'a. It is not clear if the bread and roll are for protection or a mid-protest snack.
From here
Courtesy of NG
Thursday, February 3, 2011
The Cost of Stability
The Yemen 'Day of Rage' has been quite in my corner of the country and though the protests in Sana'a were large, they were peaceful. That is good.
According to the BBC, over 20,000 people gathered at an anti-government rally in Sana'a. That is the largest crowd ever to gather in opposition to the current president.
The NY Times also reports that a sizable pro-government rally was organized by the president and his party. The pro-government rally called for political change but not for the president's removal, believing only he could ensure the country's stability.
The president, in addition to announcing Wednesday that he nor his son will run for office in 2013, has promised to raise civil servant and military wages, impose price controls on critical goods, establish a fund to employ university graduates, extend social security and reduce income taxes. He also promised to reform the election process in advance of April's parliamentary elections.
Let's focus on his economic and financial promises. While in the short run these promises may defuse the economic motivations for political action against the president, in the long run, they exacerbate Yemen's financial problem. The government of Yemen relies on oil for a majority of its revenue but due to low global oil prices, a corrupt system that syphons money off at several points (I suspect. I can not prove that) and dwindling reserves, the Yemeni government is barreling (like that pun?) toward the day when it can no longer sustain the welfare and clientelism system that maintains state stability. When the government, in particular the president, can no long offer handouts and favors, it will lose its control over the tribal and local leaders it has absorbed into the system and thus its ability to provide stability. Loyalty you buy is only good when you can pay for it.
Adding further financial strain to the system to achieve an ephemeral political victory does not help Yemen.
According to the BBC, over 20,000 people gathered at an anti-government rally in Sana'a. That is the largest crowd ever to gather in opposition to the current president.
The NY Times also reports that a sizable pro-government rally was organized by the president and his party. The pro-government rally called for political change but not for the president's removal, believing only he could ensure the country's stability.
The president, in addition to announcing Wednesday that he nor his son will run for office in 2013, has promised to raise civil servant and military wages, impose price controls on critical goods, establish a fund to employ university graduates, extend social security and reduce income taxes. He also promised to reform the election process in advance of April's parliamentary elections.
Let's focus on his economic and financial promises. While in the short run these promises may defuse the economic motivations for political action against the president, in the long run, they exacerbate Yemen's financial problem. The government of Yemen relies on oil for a majority of its revenue but due to low global oil prices, a corrupt system that syphons money off at several points (I suspect. I can not prove that) and dwindling reserves, the Yemeni government is barreling (like that pun?) toward the day when it can no longer sustain the welfare and clientelism system that maintains state stability. When the government, in particular the president, can no long offer handouts and favors, it will lose its control over the tribal and local leaders it has absorbed into the system and thus its ability to provide stability. Loyalty you buy is only good when you can pay for it.
Adding further financial strain to the system to achieve an ephemeral political victory does not help Yemen.
Wednesday, February 2, 2011
President vows to not seek reelection
The President of Yemen vowed not to extend his presidency, which ends in 2013, or pass power to his son. This promise comes in advance of protests against his rule scheduled for Thursday, Yemen's Day of Anger. See BBC article
The unrest in Tunisia and Egypt and thinning of the Arab autocrat club clearly got his attention. The King of Jordan, similarly making concessions before crowds and demands grew to be unmanageable, dismissed his cabinet and promised more democratic processes. While superficially the Yemeni president has made a big promise, he already made that promise to his people twice and well, he's still president.
Will the opposition or the people trust him this time? Are they satisfied waiting until 2013? The 2013 elections are two years away giving him plenty of time to entrench himself in power further. Saleh is a survivor and I believe his present actions must be viewed through that lens. The opposition welcomed his statement but said they await more concrete steps to that end and that the protests will go forward tomorrow as planned, peaceful and orderly.
The unrest in Tunisia and Egypt and thinning of the Arab autocrat club clearly got his attention. The King of Jordan, similarly making concessions before crowds and demands grew to be unmanageable, dismissed his cabinet and promised more democratic processes. While superficially the Yemeni president has made a big promise, he already made that promise to his people twice and well, he's still president.
Will the opposition or the people trust him this time? Are they satisfied waiting until 2013? The 2013 elections are two years away giving him plenty of time to entrench himself in power further. Saleh is a survivor and I believe his present actions must be viewed through that lens. The opposition welcomed his statement but said they await more concrete steps to that end and that the protests will go forward tomorrow as planned, peaceful and orderly.
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