Yemen Forecast

It's warming up. I mean, literally, the weather starting to be hot again. I was really hoping the Yemeni winter would stay a couple more months but the spring/summer/fall monster of heat and humidity is moving back in. Alas.

Being more pensive and metaphorical for a moment, here are where things stand in Yemen's political arena and thoughts on what could be coming. The protests last Thursday did not make the big waves Western observers were expecting. As you might have read, Yemen opposition parties called for protests last Thursday against the government. Protests occurred in the big cities but were moderate in size, peaceful, and dispersed before lunch. In Sana'a, a sizable crowd gathered for a pro-government rally in Sana'a's Liberation Square calling for reform but not for regime change. Rumor has it that those protesters received 2000 YR for their morning of shouting and cheering. That's good money for a half day of work in Yemen.

The opposition has vowed to protest every Thursday until those demands are met. it is not clear whether these protests will be more intense or longer than those last Thursday. Local threat analysts say the likelihood of Yemen being the next Egypt are low right now but note that if Yemen was to experience wide spread protests, they would likely be violent given the country is awash in firearms.

Gregory Johnson, a professor at Princeton University, keeps a insightful blog on Yemen called Waq al-Waq. I encourage you to read his posts. You will find a link to his blog on the right of this blog. I enjoy sharing my attempts at political analysis with you but encourage you to read his posts for a more informed perspective.

He writes in his post recent post that he thinks Yemen will be in trouble if two things happen: 1. Mubarak falls in Egypt and 2. Yemenis take to the street outside the control of political parties in popular protests. Some analysts after last Thursdays largely quiet day of rage concluded Yemen will not follow the path of Tunisia and Egypt. Johnson instead, noting that Yemen has historically been the caboose of the Arab political fashion train, urges patience in forecasting Yemen's future.

As for the weather, it's getting warmer.

Join the Flour Revolution. It's the yeast you can do

A man taking part in anti-government protests in Sana'a. It is not clear if the bread and roll are for protection or a mid-protest snack.

From here
Courtesy of NG

The Cost of Stability

The Yemen 'Day of Rage' has been quite in my corner of the country and though the protests in Sana'a were large, they were peaceful. That is good.

According to the BBC, over 20,000 people gathered at an anti-government rally in Sana'a. That is the largest crowd ever to gather in opposition to the current president.

The NY Times also reports that a sizable pro-government rally was organized by the president and his party. The pro-government rally called for political change but not for the president's removal, believing only he could ensure the country's stability.

The president, in addition to announcing Wednesday that he nor his son will run for office in 2013, has promised to raise civil servant and military wages, impose price controls on critical goods, establish a fund to employ university graduates, extend social security and reduce income taxes. He also promised to reform the election process in advance of April's parliamentary elections.

Let's focus on his economic and financial promises. While in the short run these promises may defuse the economic motivations for political action against the president, in the long run, they exacerbate Yemen's financial problem. The government of Yemen relies on oil for a majority of its revenue but due to low global oil prices, a corrupt system that syphons money off at several points (I suspect. I can not prove that) and dwindling reserves, the Yemeni government is barreling (like that pun?) toward the day when it can no longer sustain the welfare and clientelism system that maintains state stability. When the government, in particular the president, can no long offer handouts and favors, it will lose its control over the tribal and local leaders it has absorbed into the system and thus its ability to provide stability. Loyalty you buy is only good when you can pay for it.

Adding further financial strain to the system to achieve an ephemeral political victory does not help Yemen.

President vows to not seek reelection

The President of Yemen vowed not to extend his presidency, which ends in 2013, or pass power to his son. This promise comes in advance of protests against his rule scheduled for Thursday, Yemen's Day of Anger. See BBC article

The unrest in Tunisia and Egypt and thinning of the Arab autocrat club clearly got his attention. The King of Jordan, similarly making concessions before crowds and demands grew to be unmanageable, dismissed his cabinet and promised more democratic processes. While superficially the Yemeni president has made a big promise, he already made that promise to his people twice and well, he's still president.

Will the opposition or the people trust him this time? Are they satisfied waiting until 2013? The 2013 elections are two years away giving him plenty of time to entrench himself in power further. Saleh is a survivor and I believe his present actions must be viewed through that lens. The opposition welcomed his statement but said they await more concrete steps to that end and that the protests will go forward tomorrow as planned, peaceful and orderly.