Thursday, July 29, 2010

Say Hello Norman! Hello!

I just attended two days of lifestock training for TUP beneficiares in Aden. I am now trained to recognize healthy and sick sheep and goats, trim their nails, administer medicine, deal with intestinal problems, castrate them, and a couple more things I forgot.

Thus, all you owner of livestock readers out there, I am ready to field all your livestock related inquires. You're in capable hooves.

Saturday, July 24, 2010

Where's the Point?

I think this will be the final installment in our transportation related post series.

You can indicate to drivers where you want to go just by pointing a certain way in Aden. Pointing to the ground means you want to go within that district. Pointing down the road means you want to go to the next district or further. Pointing across the street means you want to go to an adjacent district, but not the one down the road. The bus going your way will pull to the side depending on where you point.

The Catch: It all varies depending on where you are in the city. In Mansoora, across the road means Crater and down the road means Ma'alla. In Crater, down the road (depending on the direction) can mean Ma'alla or Khor Maksar, and across the road means Kalouah. The list goes on.

Now that I know the point, I need to learn where to point.

After the Random

Beneficiaries have been selected so the project is moving into the training and asset transfer stage. The selected beneficiaries will receive training on a productive assest such as livestock or sewing, receive that asset, and then have regular check ups with field staff to address any problems with working with the asset (uncooperative goats and the sort). That's Targeting the Ultra Poor in a nutshell.

This is an exciting stage. The heart of the project is the relationships the field staff build with the beneficiaries as they work with their asset. I have been in meetings the past couple days listening to BRAC and CGAP representatives train the field staff on how manage those relationships.

My time in Sana'a was good. It's quite a different city from Aden. It was strange to get on the plane and go home to Aden. It was nice though. I have an apartment in Aden now. Send me an email for the address.

I have not really met my neighbors other than yesterday, my neighbors kids locked me IN my apartment. There is a sliding bar lock on the outside of my door which they playful slid into place. Kids, so cute. Fortunately my landlord was home and came and set me free. I think my landlord must have scolded them or something because now they run away when I come up the stairs. So, all in all, still working on meeting the neighbors.

Sunday, July 18, 2010

Soggy Bottom Boy

I traveled to Sana'a, the capital of Yemen, this weekend to process my residence visa and meet with our project implementing partners. At my first meeting with our partners, I sat down to talk with a co-worker about the project. Unfortunately, the chair I selected was soaking wet and before I could avert disaster, my entire bottom was wet. I went the rest of the day with my pants completely soaked. It's a unique challenge trying to be serious and professional while your pants are wet. Other than not having my swimming trunks, I felt prepared and the meetings went well. More to come on my time in Sana'a.

Thursday, July 15, 2010

A Complete Knock Off

Continuing transportation themed posts, there is a swarm of big and small buses on the streets of Aden offering cheap transportation. From what I have observed so far, the big buses run local routes stopping frequently and moving people back and forth down long streets. The smaller buses serve that purpose as well but they also shuttle passengers between districts and between the mainland and the peninsula. See below:


The Aden system for telling the bus driver you want to get off is a sharp knock on the metal bus frame. They respond to verbal commands but the knock seems to do the trick. Unless you're me and are a complete failure at knocking on the side of the bus. So far I have: missed the bus and hit the window, not knocked hard enough, or hit the rubber padding that insulates the windows. It's only been a month though. Give me one more and I'll have it down.

Thanks Google for the pretty map!

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Fuming

Aden is in the middle of a diesel shortage that has lasted almost a week. There are long queues outside each gas station that block traffic and generally get everyone hot under the collar. Shortages are not that uncommon in Aden and Sana'a but they often are not this long. The government says it will end shortly, for what that is worth.

The problem seems to be this: The government recently loosened price controls on diesel and other oil products allowing the price to rise based on a World Bank report in May that oil prices in Yemen were less han 60% the world price average. The World Bank hoped to combine a reduction in government oil subsides with loans and reforms to allow the government to save on subsides and generate income with higher oil prices. The reforms, however, did not work as they were insufficient or absorbed by corrupt officials leaving the poorest in Yemen the burden of the higher fuel costs. As for the shortage, the truckers that keep Aden and other cities supplied have been denied corresponding wage hikes and thus are on strike. Thus, there is not enough diesel reaching Aden.


Further complicating matters is the occasional checkpoint set up by disgruntled members of the army who have not received their salaries for several months. They have also been responsible for waylaying trucks causing acute shortages. Note to self: If I train people in military tactics, pay them well.

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Exploding the Question

I am currently staying in a hotel that is popular for wedding parties. What this means is around 11 PM, a long train of cars rolls past the hotel blaring their horns as loud as possible. Kids in the car caravan are playing drums, those not drumming are throwing firecrackers and those not throwing firecrackers are lighting them for the kids with better arms. It's quite a festival.

Car decoration is a must for your Yemen wedding. I wish I had a picture but I don't so I'll try to describe it. Cars are bedazzled with window frosting and ribbon. A standard look is a small bow on top of the car with ribbons splaying out from it reaching various edges of the hood like a fan. The windows are frosted with white and pink paint and unfortunate stencils are responsible for floods of anatomically incorrect hearts spilling over from window to window. Often only a half the windshield is left clear for the driver to see.

Apparently, the month before Ramadan is the big wedding season as the fast during Ramadan calls Muslims to abstain from food, drink, and intercourse. I wonder if that means there's a month lull for births in Yemeni hospitals.

Saturday, July 10, 2010

Randomizing or Dnrnaizigm

Today I am visiting a public randomization for the Yemen TUP program. What is a randomization you ask? Why randomizations you further inquire? Well, allow me to explain.

Randomization is the process used to assign the potential TUP beneficiaries to one of two groups: the group receiving the program or the group that does not receive the program. The development terminology for these groups is treatment and control. Randomization can be done on the computer using Excel to generate random number assignment or it can be done through a public lottery.

Why randomizations? Assigning beneficiaries to treatment and control accomplishes several goals. First, it creates two statistically identical groups. Since choosing randomly is inherently uncorrelated with any characteristic in the sample, each characteristic has the same probably of appearing in the treatment group and the control group. Second, having statistically identical treatment and control groups allows intrepid researchers to answer the question "What would have happened in the absence of the intervention?" This question is called the counterfactual. Once again employing the powers of Microsoft paint, the graph below visually demonstrates this concept:

The red line left of the vertical line is the entire sample prior to the intervention. The gray line is the start of the intervention and the division of the sample into treatment and control groups. Since randomization created identical treatment and control groups, the only difference between the groups is one receives the intervention and the other does not. Thus, any difference in outcome between the groups can be attributed to the program. This is essentially the concept used in medical research applied to answering social science questions.

Looking the graph, we see in this case that the treatment group income increased at a higher rate than the control group income after the intervention. Again, because the randomization created identical treatment and control groups, we can say with confidence that this change is attributable to the intervention. The green control group has served to answer the counterfactual.

"But this is not fair!" you cry. "Some people get the program while others don't!"

Not so. Randomization is actually the most fair method to decide who receives the intervention. It gives each beneficiary an equal chance of getting the intervention. Further, as is the case with most development programs, there is often not enough resources to serve everyone so randomization allows for meaningful impact evaluation and fair assignment to treatment. Finally, what if the program actually doesn't help incomes but hurts them? While programs hopefully do not have that outcome, randomization again has given each participant an equal chance at receiving or not receiving the treatment of ambiguous impact.

Randomized Control Trials, or RCTs, is the methodology of choice for researchers and aid agencies wanting to maximize the use of resources.

Read more at:

www.poverty-action.org
www.povertyactionlab.org

Or watch:
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/esther_duflo_social_experiments_to_fight_poverty.html

Friday, July 9, 2010

Cruisin' Y.A.R

I drove today! A man I met at church asked me to help move a car to an office nearby. I was a little nervous but it turned out okay. It was a standard transmission as well, which I only recently learned to drive.

What made the experience really rewarding was I got to use the car horn. Liberally. Car horns in Yemen (and many developing countries) are used not when you're angry but to announce your presense. Being true to my cultural context, I let everyone know I was there. Maybe I'll give up the whole development work thing and drive a cab in Aden. Who wants the first ride?

Monday, July 5, 2010

Don't Look

Somaliland, an internationally unrecognized state in Somalia, recently completed its democratic presidental election and a peace transition of power. The country is now seeking international recognition. What an impressive accomplishment for a state in an unstable neighborhood! Any one want to visit with me?

Read more here: http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/04/world/africa/04somaliland.html?ref=africa

Curious to learn more, I searched for a map of Somaliland but my attempts to load the maps were blocked by the Yemen Net pornography filter. Unbelievable.

Sunday, July 4, 2010

The Good Ol' Days


Five riyals just doesn't get you what it used to. This informative wall graffiti bemoans the decreasing value of Yemen's currency. The brother just wants to buy a coke, that's all. The drawing for 2015 is labeled "cap."

Yemen faces bigger problems than the increasing cost of a soda fix. Sana'a, Yemen's capital, is forcasted to run out of water in the next 15 years. Much of Yemen's current water supply is directed toward the cultivation of qat, a midly narcotic leaf chewed by a majority of Yemeni men. In addition, Yemen's oil production has peaked and the state's dependence on declining oil revenues has crippled the state's ability to co-opt regional and tribal leaders. The state must now compete with other forces, notably international terrorist organizations, interested in using the tribes for their benefit.

What can be done? In all honestly, while the West faces the consequences of state deterioration in Yemen (the possiblity that failed state border both sides of the entrance to the Red Sea and Suez Canal shipping?), it is not positioned to enforce solutions. Neighboring nations, such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt, that are also threated by Yemeni state instability but seen as at least relatively more legitimate must assume a larger role in promoting a more sustainable political and economic practices in Yemen. It matters.
All this thinkin' has worked up a thirst. Oh wait.
99 bottles of water on the wall, 99 bottles of water, take one down.....

Taller Tales

An interesting piece on perceptions and use of American power in combating terrorism. Perhaps less is more.

http://opinionator.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/06/29/the-myth-of-modern-jihad/?scp=11&sq=yemen&st=cse

Friday, July 2, 2010

Reading

The dangers of Google Translate and internet tutorials for Photoshop:

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/07/02/world/02qaeda.html?ref=middleeast

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Instant Exposure

Yesterday I returned to Aden from Taiz, a city two hours away and home to another survey site. The weather in Taiz was a welcome change from the constant heat of Aden. The days there are cooler and it rains (!) in the afternoon giving the landscape some green.

Taiz is also home to some of Yemen's largest food processing plants. One of these plants produces Noody Instant Noodles. The Noody slogan is "Get it before it’s gone!" The runner up slogan was "Noody: Enjoy in the privacy of your own home"

Taiz was completed plastered with pro-government propaganda. It was overwhelming. Every light post on the main road had a banner or poster with a picture of the president or a unity slogan or both. Yemen was two separate states until unification in 1990. Civil war broke out in 1994 and although Southern Yemen lost the war, it has not given up the fight. Southern separatists still harass government forces and there are real concerns of renewed conflict.

I recently finished a book on Yemen called Yemen: Dancing on the Heads of Snakes by Victoria Clark. The imaginative title refers to the president Ali Abdullah Salih's balancing act of northern rebels, southern separatists and al-Qaeda. It is a good read for those interested in learning more about Yemen.

The enumeration teams have completed work in Aden and Taiz and are now working around Lahj, the last governate in our study. Then, we randomize. In public.

Shades of gray, shades of pink, and I need to do laundry