The situation in Yemen has changed dramatically since the violent attacks on protesters camped out at Sana'a University this past Friday. The president has dismissed his cabinet and watched a series of high level officials resign their positions in the government and throw their support behind the protests. Significant among those resignations was General Ahmar, often considered the third in command behind the president and his son. While one can not predict perfectly the course Yemen will follow from here, I again believe that Yemen has passed the tipping point and there is no going back without significant political change.
I want to focus briefly on the position of the US government to these developments. In western media, it appears the US is unwilling to take a decisive stance against the Yemeni president because he is a strong ally against terrorism and if he were to be forced from power then Yemen would become an AQAP sanctuary. I believe US concerns about terrorism are badly distorting its policy toward Yemen. While there may be a minority of Yemenis that sympathize with AQAP, an overwhelming majority want to live in a country that is not scorned on the international stage or that can permit its citizens to travel abroad without heavy screening. AQAP's message in Yemen blends its jihadist call with the narrative of domestic Yemeni grievances to gain appeal. If a democratic revolution occurred in Yemen, there would be no space for AQAP, its operatives or its message to harness domestic grievances for its own ends. I fear that the US, by failing to support the protesters thereby tacitly supporting the regime, empowers the regime to hang on to power longer and thus steer the country toward greater violence and unrest, a world in which AQAP can thrive or at least survive.
Realistically as well, AQAP in Yemen may never be completely destroyed, either through regime and attitude change or military means. I believe, however, that strong governance in Yemen holds more power to rend AQAP meaningless than violence through air strikes or civil unrest. Any situation in which people are pushed to pick up arms only plays into AQAP's hands and allows them to propagate their message.
Finally, the US government has yet to tell its citizens to leave Yemen. What sort of development are they waiting for? All prior messages from the US embassy stressed that in the event of an emergency, travel would be extremely limited and dangerous yet they have not upgraded their message from 'suggested departure' to 'go.' The US should rethink its approach to Yemen and decide if it wants to be on the side of the Yemeni people. That side is conveniently the side against AQAP. C'mon US government!
I accidentally found your blog which has not been updated in a very long time. 3aib 3alayk ya 5a2an lUgandi.Yemen is not good right now. Mostly because they won't let me go to the camp, and I'm stuck in the office with Sam (evacuated from Sana'a) who insists on singing ABBA songs incessantly. I think this comment is detracting from the seriousness of your blog. Asfe. Al muhim: the Captain gets back tomorrow. Sana'a gets worse every day. Zinjibar, approx 30 minutes away from Aden is worrying people here who are afraid that something similar might happen here. I doubt it, as Aden seems to be tougher than Zinjibar aslan, and it would be more difficult for 200 or so men with guns to take over here. Meanwhile, the villagers around the camp are ready to fight given any provocation. They shot at our convoy while I was in Somalia. If the village tribes decide to jump into the conflict, then the work in Kharaz will be seriously decreased, maybe even stopped completely. UNHCR is keeping their foreign personnel out of the camp. I'm pushing to get myself back into the camp at least for a day, hoping that we won't follow their same restrictive over-protective policies. Inshalla. Bas from here. Too bad you won't be able to join me and the Captain on our next run/swim. Salam 3ala Uganda.
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