Tuesday, March 1, 2011

The people want....?

Um. Err. Well.

The people are still making up their minds in Yemen. There are minority groups, the group gathered at Sana'a University and groups in Taiz that have demonstrated commitment to the protests but the public at large is still content to observe and not participate. The street protests in Egypt were popular in a way the protests in Yemen are not, at least not yet.

Political parties in Yemen are still finding their place in the uprising. Yemeni political parties seem to be the only entities with the organizational capacity to stage large protests but they suffer from a lack of support. They initially tried to lead the charge and are now searching to time and ride the waves of popular anger. Today, the latest Day of Rage in Yemen, was another such attempt to time political party involvement with a rise in popular protest momentum. From what I can tell, it was not successful.

A development to watch is the recent declarations by tribal leaders throwing their support behind the opposition movement. One such leader, from the president's own tribe, has called for the tribe to join the protests this coming Friday in Sana'a. Tribal allegiances play an critical balancing role in Yemeni politics. Last week the president paid visits to tribal leaders near the capital, passing out money and new cars in an effort to secure their support. Both the ruling party and the opposition recognize the importance of the tribes and the unrest taking on a strong tribal dynamic could raise concerns of civil war.

The NY times reported today that a Al-Qaeda leader in Yemen called for the protests to bring about an Islamic state in Yemen. That has been part of AQAP's narrative in Yemen but does not really have traction with the ordinary Yemeni. AQAP even recognizes that and already tries to adapt its messages to more align with Yemeni domestic grievances. I doubt that AQAP's call for an Islamic state will draw out more protesters. People smarter than me believe that AQAP thrives in Yemen because of a weak state presence in rural areas and potential state support for AQAP as it keeps international aid coming into the country. A regime change would likely mean a less favorable environment for AQAP activities. When AQAP's narrative can no longer use domestic greivances, I believe tolerance for their activities will fade.

The police response to protests in the southern city of Aden has been disproportionately violent compared to police action in other regions. The president's message to protect peaceful protesters did not seem to make to the forces he sent to Aden. The extreme use of violent force in the former capital of South Yemen by police and army forces enhances the north-south regional dynamic and has the potential to fuel larger, more angry protests if there are more deaths.

Finally, today the Yemeni president claimed that the current unrest in the Arab world is a plot hatched by Israel and the US to undermine Arab regimes. I don't know how people are reacting to that but it seems to me as a pretty transparent attempt to redirection attention off his regime.

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