Feb. 3rd.: Yemen's Day of Anger

The opposition coalition has declared February 3rd to be Yemen's Day of Anger calling for Yemenis to take to the streets and protest against government rule. Egypt's Day of Anger, January 25th, sparked the current popular uprising that threatens to unseat long time president Hosni Mubarak.

The opposition leaders made the calls for protests following a refusal by the General People's Congress (GPC) to convene the National Dialogue Committee. The National Dialogue Committee is composed of the President, vice President and two leaders of the opposition party and is a forum for addressing the political grievances and imbalances in the current system. In particular, the opposition coalition, or Joint Meeting Parties (JMP), is unhappy with a current proposed constitutional amendment that would remove term limits allowing the president to run for office again.

“These amendments came to serve the authorities, not the country and the people. Therefore the people went out on these public demonstrations to express that they are fed up with the political situation,” said No’man. “The question now is: is this regime in a situation that allows it to make any social, economic or security improvements?”

Courtesy of the Yemen Times: LINK

That's the word from the top. I don't know what the average Yemeni knows or cares about opposition declaration. I will write more as I learn more.

Is Yemen next?

As you are aware, civil protests in Egypt against Mubarak and his regime have reached unprecedented levels in the past few days. Mubarak’ efforts to satisfy the crowds – first by reshuffling his cabinet and second by appointing a vice president – have only provoked stronger calls for Mubarak to step down. The feared police forces have abandoned the streets and it seems Mubarak is willing to allow the country to descend into chaos before relinquishing control. Egypt appears to be on the cusp of a long sought regime change and more open democratic practices.

All of these remarkable developments come on the heels of the ousting of the authoritative Tunisian government earlier this month and raise the question of whether the revolutionary spirit will continue to spread in the Middle East. Analysts are paying particular attention to Yemen, the poorest Arab nation fraught with political, economic and security problems run by a man who has held power longer than Mubarak (President Saleh took power in 1979, two years before Mubarak). Media sources are reporting protests in Sana’a and other revolutionary stirrings on the streets of Yemen but, is Yemen next?

Yemenis are talking. The examples of Tunisia and Egypt have people wondering if Yemen will follow in their footsteps. There are certainly enough internal forces working against Yemeni stability. To briefly describe them:

1.The Houthi Rebellion - The recurring Houthi rebellion in the northern province of Sa’ada has financially and militariliy taxed the central government and demonstrated that it does not have the capacity to control one armed uprising, much less multiple insurrections. The initial causes for the conflict have been lost in years of compounding conflict and tribal intervention transforming a regional conflict into a conflict with the potential capacity to threaten central government stability.

2.AQAP – Yemen is a safe haven for Al-Qaeda elements and the state’s unwillingness or inability to control and counteract their presence threatens both internal stability and international security. AQAP tries to endear itself to the local population by trying to align its message with local grievances but in reality, its goals are distinct from that of other forces like the Southern Movement.

3.The Southern Movement – A secessionist movement in southern Yemen that is seeking to break away from northern Yemen and reestablish South Yemen or South Arabia. Yemen was two countries prior to unification in 1990. Southerners complain of economic and social inequality between the north and south and frustrated with the north’s empty promises for resource and power sharing following unification and a brief civil war in 1994.

I could continue as the list goes on: lack of central government presence outside major cities (a majority of the population lives in the country side), a rapidly growing population (expected to double by 2050), dwindling water and oil resources (Sana’a is projected to be the first capital to run out of water in 2017), and high unemployment (35% of the population is unemployed – near the unemployment level during the US Great Depression).

The outlook is grim. But does this all add up to revolution or regime change? Egyptians had a litany repressed grievances for years that did not turn their grievances into open protest until the trigger of the Tunisian revolution. It is yet to be seen if the revolutionary momentum will carry over to Yemen on the same scale. Yemen is also missing a factor present among young people in Tunisia and Egypt – social networking. Facebook and Twitter played a crucial role in mobilizing the masses in Tunisian and to a lesser extent in Egypt as well. Compared with Tunisia and Egypt, few Yemenis are internet savvy and fewer are utilizing those social network tools.

Finally, the big question on the mind of Yemenis is if Saleh falls, who takes his place? Does Yemen risk over turning the system with no viable alternative? While this concern may give Yemenis pause on an individual level, could it hold up a mass uprising against the government? Saleh, like Mubarak, has positioned himself such that his ouster would cause chaos in the system. A collapse of central control in Yemen, however, would unleash the rebellions described above that are already thriving with a government presence. Also, the unrest in Egypt has so far been characterized by the lack of violence against foreigners. Would that be true for Yemen?

You will notice I have posed more questions in this post than I attempt to answer. The confluence of forces and factors that lead to collective civil action and protest are complicated and difficult to measure and predict.

My corner of Yemen has been quiet so far.

I thought we were friends

Hilary Clinton visited Yemen today and did not call or even tell me she was coming. I'm trying not to be offended. Hil, I get that you're busy but if you're traveling all this way the least you can do is say hi.

A Times article has more: here

Take a close look at the picture at the top of the article. Unless Hilary is wearing heels (not comfortable traveling shoes by the way. Not that I know that from experience), she is legitimately taller than Saleh, the Yemeni president.

Kuwait takes crown from Kingdom

It took extra time to decide the newest Gulf Cup champion but when the dust settled (and there's a lot of dust in Yemen), Kuwait was victorious 1-0 over Saudi Arabia. This is the tenth time Kuwait has won the tournament out of 20 tournaments played. (I finally learned where the 20 in Gulf 20 came from). That's utter dominance considering the first tournament was held in 1970! Who knew, right?

Highlights from the game include the only goal scored and the yellow card the goal scorer received for taking off his shirt while celebrating. Oh the scandal. The card might have been for excessive celebration but it's funnier this way.

Most Yemenis I talked with wanted Kuwait to win. Saudi Arabia was not in the good graces of their hosts after the 4-0 drubbing they gave to the Yemen squad. In the true style of two countries with deep pockets, I heard both countries tried paying Yemen fans to wave their flags at the match. I wish I had known. I'm a fully qualified and trained flag waver. Sign me up.

Trouble in Paradise

An article on Yemen has surfaced among the many articles coming out of the recent US diplomatic cable disclosure. The link to the Times article here

The article focuses on the role of the Yemen president in shaping US and western policy toward the country.

“Referencing the high poverty rate and illicit arms flows into both Yemen and Somalia, Saleh concluded by saying, ‘If you don’t help, this country will become worse than Somalia,’ ” said a September 2009 cable from the American ambassador, Stephen A. Seche, describing Mr. Saleh as being in “vintage form.”

The article goes on to describe how the president uses the potential threat of terrorist strikes on western targets by Al-Qaeda to attract military and development aid. He seems to be playing the role of ally but what else could explain that behavior?

1. Saleh is a survivor. You don't stay in power of the poorest Arab country for 26 years by following the rules and certainly not by practicing democracy. The patronage system that permits him to stay in power is likely fragile and would fracture, causing instability, if the president could no longer supply it.

2. Al Qaeda is more a threat to Yemen than it is to the US. I have not read their mission statement but Al Qaeda in Yemen is more angry at Saudi Arabia and the Yemen government than they are at the US. Attacks on Yemen targets do not receive the same spotlight though thus that element is easily lost. By making AQAP the US's problem, Yemen receives fancy war toys that it can use on whom ever it wants.

3. Of the domestic insurrections facing the president, AQAP is not the most threatening. He has been fighting the Houti rebels along the Saudi Arabian border for the past couple summers and is also dealing with an increasingly rebellious south that threatens succession. Shrewdly, Saleh lumps AQAP and the southern movement into one threat justifying a hard hand in the south. While there is no denying that terrorism is a threat from Yemen and to Yemen, the Yemeni government inflates the threat of terrorism and gives little attention to the more serious threats of water depletion in the capital and the country's addiction to qat. With some probability will terrorism bring down Yemen but with a higher probability will lack of water and economic stagnation bring about trouble.

In terms of attracting foreign aid, it seems the Yemeni government is playing the tune the donors want to hear: terrorism. We must ask though if 'fighting' terrorism in Yemen is the right treatment. I see it as giving aspirin to a patient with a broken arm. You may relive the pain temporarily but the pain will return. Eventually, if the break, the source of the pain, is not addressed, the bone begins to set and even more drastic action is needed to set things right. Now, that example is not perfect. Western governments should not think of themselves as diplomatic doctors with the power to solve developing country issues but to the extent that terrorism is more a symptom of underlying imbalances and grievances than it is the broken bone itself, then the US and others have a responsibility to not continue offering pain killers if that distracts from the necessary course of action.

Wait, we lost?

Fifa just announced it selection for the nations to host the 2018 and 2022 World Cups. Russia will host in 2018 and Qatar will host in 2022. Qatar and neighboring Arab nations are understandably extremely excited. Qatar will be the first Arab nation to host the World Cup and the first country in the Middle East. Russia, on its part, will be the first eastern European nation to host the event.

Al-Jazeera is currently running lead articles with the titles to the effect of "Britain jealous of Qatar" and "America cries over loss in World Cup bid."

Question: Is anyone in the US even aware that we are bidding to host the World Cup? No? Hm. I didn't think so.

The photos on the Al-Jazeera website showed joyous crowds in Qatar celebrating the announcement. I agree, it is an exciting time for Qatar and I'm sure they will be ready come 2022. Twelve years is a long time though. Teachers with classes of six to ten year olds should start taking names. They're instructing the age group that will get a free pass to the biggest football stage.

Saudi Arabia: 4 Good ol' Yemen: 0

The game last night did not go has hoped for the Yemen faithful. Saudi Arabia struck early and then poured it on in the second half winning the match 4 goals to none. Saudi Arabia's first goal, I was told, came in the opening minutes off a free kick near the Yemen goal. The ball was crossed and headed in by the taller Saudi Arabian players over the undersized Yemeni squad. That set the tone for the rest of the evening.

I was getting a hair cut during the game. As the updated score came into the barber shop and it became clear the ol' fightin' Yemenis were going to lose, the barbers conversation turned from how the game was going to noting how the entire Yemen team was from the north and that there's only one player from Aden. If there were more southerns, why, we all know the outcome would have been different.